2026-07-31 10:14:41
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This week, precious metals traded sideways to slightly stronger, with both gold and silver posting a solid rebound. Gold continued to show better resilience than silver, as markets swung between the Federal Reserve’s unchanged policy stance, softer PCE inflation data, slower GDP growth, and a temporary easing in Middle East tensions.
Macro: Cautious Fed, Softer Inflation, and Mixed Growth Signals
The Fed’s July 28–29 FOMC meeting kept the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50%–3.75% by a 9–3 vote, marking the fifth consecutive hold. New Chair Kevin Warsh stressed the need to keep fighting sticky inflation and did not give a clear policy path, which kept markets wary of a still-hawkish bias. Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar initially came under pressure, but then moved around more broadly.
June PCE inflation came in softer, with headline PCE up 3.7% year on year, below May’s 4.1%, while core PCE rose 3.3% year on year. On a monthly basis, the overall figure even slipped 0.1%, broadly matching or slightly beating expectations and reinforcing the view that inflation pressures are easing at the margin. At the same time, second-quarter GDP slowed to an annualized 1.5%, below expectations of roughly 2.0%–2.1%, signaling a cooling growth backdrop.
Middle East tensions showed some tentative easing early in the week, which helped oil prices pull back and reduced fears of a renewed inflation flare-up. Even so, geopolitical uncertainty remains in place and continues to provide a floor for safe-haven demand.
Gold: Post-Fed Rebound, with the $4,000 Level Holding Firm
Gold held up well this week and leaned constructive. It started the week by retesting support around the $4,000 level, then rebounded after the Fed’s widely expected hold, a softer dollar, and renewed safe-haven buying. Prices at one point moved close to, or briefly above, the $4,110–4,160 area before settling into high-level consolidation. Reuters-style reporting also suggested that gold gained roughly $40 immediately after the decision and found additional support after the PCE release.
The 4,000 level remains a key reference point for the market, with dip-buying appearing repeatedly whenever price approaches that area. Official-sector demand, physical buying, and geopolitical risk continue to support the downside, while rate expectations have not turned decisively dovish and energy-price volatility still limits upside follow-through.
Silver: Recovering But Still Lagging Gold
Silver also rebounded this week, though it remained a step behind gold. Prices recovered from the mid-$56 to $57 area early in the week and later moved up toward the $58 to $59 range, with some intraday pushes above $59. Its industrial nature still makes it more sensitive to growth expectations and manufacturing sentiment, so the rebound was capped by the softer GDP backdrop.
Short-Term Outlook
Gold remains neutral to slightly positive in the short term, but trading is likely to stay uneven. The $4,000 level should continue to act as major support, while the $4,100 to $4,170 zone is the first resistance band to watch on rebounds. For silver, unless there is a clearer improvement in the growth backdrop or a further drop in the dollar, prices may continue to chop around at elevated levels, with rallies likely to meet resistance.
Risk Disclosure
This article is based on publicly available information and mainstream media reports. The policies and data discussed herein are subject to change following subsequent official documents or judicial rulings. Precious metal prices are influenced by multiple factors, including the U.S. dollar, interest rates, geopolitical developments, and central bank purchases, and are subject to significant volatility. Any investment advice provided herein is for reference only and does not constitute specific investment or trading instructions for any individual. Please make decisions prudently, taking into account your own risk tolerance and financial circumstances.
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