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Mine production rises, recycling falls: why higher gold prices have not created a larger physical supply

2026-08-18 10:30:23 | 浏览 1

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The second quarter of 2026 revealed an important divergence on the supply side of the gold market. Mine production increased, but recycled gold declined, leaving total supply broadly unchanged rather than expanding significantly alongside elevated prices.

According to the World Gold Council, total gold supply in Q2 was approximately 1,268.9 tonnes, broadly unchanged year-on-year. Within that total:

  • Mine production reached approximately 965.6 tonnes, up 2% year-on-year.
  • Recycled gold supply fell to approximately 326.1 tonnes, down 6% year-on-year.
  • The increase in mine production largely offset the decline in recycling.


These figures show that gold supply is not driven by one single source. Physical gold entering the market generally comes from two different channels:

First, newly mined gold.
This supply is influenced by mine output, production cycles, project development and operating conditions. It usually changes gradually and does not respond immediately to short-term price movements.

Second, recycled gold.
This includes old jewellery, bars, coins and other gold-containing products that are sold back into the market. While higher prices may encourage some holders to sell, actual recycling also depends on expectations, financial planning and willingness to reduce existing holdings.

The 6% year-on-year decline in recycled supply during Q2 suggests that elevated prices did not automatically lead to a large release of existing gold holdings. Some holders may have preferred to retain their physical gold rather than sell it immediately.


This matters for the physical market because supply conditions can affect:

  • Availability of specific bars and coins;
  • Local premiums and spreads;
  • Inventory by product format and region;
  • Delivery timing and custody arrangements;
  • The difference between a reference price and the final ownership cost.

For individual investors, analysing gold therefore involves more than asking whether the price is rising. Useful questions include:

  1. Is current supply coming mainly from new mine production or recycled holdings?
  2. Are physical inventories broadly available, or are some products more limited?
  3. Does the quoted price include premiums, production costs, storage and other charges?
  4. Is the intended purpose short-term price exposure or long-term physical ownership?

For providers of physical gold solutions, supply-side data can support more complete client education. Alongside price information, investors should be able to understand product availability, certification, custody and delivery arrangements.


The central question may be:

When gold prices rise, is more physical gold actually becoming available — or are existing holders choosing to keep what they already own?

Understanding supply sources and holder behaviour can help investors evaluate physical gold more carefully, rather than relying only on short-term price movements.


Upway Global: Driving New Patterns in Gold Investment

Upway Global, a prominent brand under Upway Group, has been rooted in the market for over 16 years, holding Grade AA member status (No. 084) at the HKGX and serving as a core member of Bullion Group. As a key player in the precious metals investment sector, Upway Global strictly follows international purity and quality standards, earning the prestigious "Recognised Delivery Bar Refiner Certificate," ranking among Hong Kong's top refiners. The brand focuses on offering diverse electronic trading in precious metals, its outstanding market performance includes a single-day XAU turnover reaching USD 80.75 billion in 2025, with over 2.1 million active members and over 7.6 billion cumulative orders, maintaining the highest average monthly trading volume at the HKGX.

At the same time, Upway Global recognises that user experience is central to brand competitiveness. Our platform offers 24/7 multilingual customer support, with dedicated service specialists assisting clients around the clock. Standing side by side with investors in a rapidly changing market, Upway Global helps clients achieve steady asset growth through reliable and professional services.

Risk Disclosure

This report is based on publicly available information and mainstream media coverage. Policies and data may change upon release of official documents or judicial rulings. Precious metal prices are affected by USD dynamics, interest rates, geopolitics, and central bank demand, among other factors, and are subject to significant volatility. Any investment views herein are for reference only and do not constitute investment or trading advice for any individual. Please assess decisions prudently in light of your own risk tolerance and financial conditions.