2026-08-28 15:59:08
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Precious metals remained firmly supported this week, with gold briefly approaching $4,700 and silver trading near $69 before pulling back from their highs. Although both metals experienced some profit-taking, the broader bullish structure remained intact as investors awaited Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium.
Gold continued to benefit from safe-haven demand, a softer U.S. dollar at various points during the week, lower Treasury yields and continued institutional buying. However, slightly firmer-than-expected July PCE inflation data reminded markets that the Federal Reserve's policy path remains uncertain.
Macro: Sticky PCE Inflation Keeps the Fed in Focus
The U.S. July Personal Consumption Expenditures price index rose 3.7% year on year, unchanged from June but slightly above market expectations of 3.6%. Monthly headline PCE increased 0.2%, while core PCE also rose 0.2% month on month and remained at 3.3% year on year. The data suggested that underlying inflation pressures remain persistent.
As PCE remains one of the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation indicators, the release prompted markets to reassess the possibility of another rate hike in September. Inflation remains well above the Fed's 2% target, leaving policymakers with a difficult balance between supporting growth and containing price pressures.
At the same time, Treasury yields eased later in the week. The 10-year yield moved back toward 4.70%, providing support for gold and silver despite the more cautious rate outlook.
The Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium is taking place from August 27 to 29. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to speak on August 28 at 10:00 a.m. New York time, and markets will focus closely on his comments regarding inflation, employment and the future interest-rate path.
Gold: Tests $4,700 Before Consolidating
Gold extended its strong August rally and moved above $4,600 at the start of the week. Supported by safe-haven demand, institutional buying, a softer dollar and lower yields, spot gold briefly reached approximately $4,697 before retreating toward the $4,600 area.
The next upside level to watch is around $4,700. A sustained break above this area could open the way toward $4,750. On the downside, $4,550-$4,600 may provide initial support, while $4,500 remains a more important psychological and technical reference point.
However, gold's rapid August advance has also increased the risk of short-term profit-taking. A hawkish message from Chair Warsh, combined with a stronger dollar or higher Treasury yields, could trigger a deeper technical correction.
Silver: Strong Momentum Near $69
Silver continued to show stronger short-term upside momentum than gold. Prices moved above $68 and approached $69, although the market remained volatile as investors positioned ahead of the Jackson Hole speech.
Silver futures opened around $68.09 on August 27 and reached approximately $68.99 during the session.
A clear break above $69 could open the way toward $70-$72. If prices retreat, the $65-$68 area may provide initial support, followed by $63-$65 as a deeper support zone.
Silver's ability to maintain its momentum will depend on the direction of the U.S. dollar and real yields, as well as whether global manufacturing and industrial-demand expectations continue to improve.
Short-Term Outlook
Gold retains a constructive short-term bias after breaking above $4,600, but the market has entered a more sensitive phase after approaching $4,700. Holding above $4,600 could allow prices to retest $4,700 and potentially move toward $4,750. A break below $4,550 would increase the risk of a pullback toward $4,500.
Silver's short-term momentum remains stronger than gold's. The $68 level is an important reference point, while $69-$70 represents the next resistance zone. As long as silver remains above $65, the broader recovery structure remains constructive.
The most important catalysts next week will include:
A softer policy message from Chair Warsh, particularly one that acknowledges labor-market weakness while maintaining confidence that inflation is manageable, could provide further support for precious metals. Conversely, a hawkish message emphasizing inflation risks and the possibility of additional rate hikes could lift the dollar and yields, placing pressure on gold and silver after their strong rally.
Overall, the medium-term structure for gold and silver remains positive, but both metals have entered a high-level and highly sensitive trading phase. The wording of the Jackson Hole speech could determine whether the current rally extends or develops into a period of consolidation.
At Upway Global, we continue to help clients navigate changing precious-metals markets with competitive pricing and professional market insights.
This market commentary is for general information only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial product.
Risk Disclosure
This report is based on publicly available information and mainstream media coverage. Policies and data may change upon release of official documents or judicial rulings. Precious metal prices are affected by USD dynamics, interest rates, geopolitics, and central bank demand, among other factors, and are subject to significant volatility. Any investment views herein are for reference only and do not constitute investment or trading advice for any individual. Please assess decisions prudently in light of your own risk tolerance and financial conditions.
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