2026-09-11 16:23:52
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Precious metals came under renewed pressure this week, with both gold and silver extending their pullback from recent highs. Stronger-than-expected U.S. producer-price data, rising oil prices and a sharp increase in expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike next week supported the dollar and Treasury yields, weighing on precious metals.
As of September 10, spot gold briefly fell toward $4,340 per ounce, while silver declined toward $64 and significantly under-performed gold during the sell-off.
Macro: Hotter PPI Revives Rate-Hike Expectations
The U.S. August Producer Price Index rose 0.4% month on month and 5.4% year on year. Core PPI increased approximately 0.3% month on month, suggesting renewed pressure from producer costs. Higher energy prices and rising service costs contributed to the stronger-than-expected reading.
Following the release, markets sharply increased expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 15-16 meeting. Fed-funds futures briefly implied approximately a 70% probability of a 25-basis-point hike, up from around 65% before the data.
The PPI report supported the dollar, and Treasury yields while directly pressuring gold and silver. However, investors are still awaiting the U.S. August CPI report, which will be one of the final major inflation inputs available before the Fed's September decision.
The market remains divided. Higher inflation and oil prices increase the pressure for further tightening, while weak employment data and concerns about economic growth limit the Fed's room to raise rates aggressively. As a result, next week's policy meeting could be one of the most uncertain Fed meetings of the year.
Gold: Falls Below $4,400 as $4,300 Becomes Key Support
Gold traded around $4,400 for much of the week before falling sharply after the PPI report increased rate-hike expectations. On September 10, spot gold briefly declined toward $4,340, down more than 1% on the session.
If gold can reclaim $4,400, the next rebound target may be $4,450-$4,500. A sustained break below $4,300 could expose the market to a deeper pullback toward $4,250.
With the Fed decision and updated economic projections due next week, gold may experience sharp two-way volatility within the $4,300-$4,500 range.
Silver: Larger Decline Keeps $64 in Focus
Silver continued to under-perform gold this week. After the PPI release, silver fell more than 4% at one point and approached $64, reflecting heavier selling pressure in an asset with greater industrial exposure and higher volatility.
If silver can hold $64 and reclaim $66, prices may recover toward $68-$70. A sustained break below $64 would increase the risk of a decline toward $62-$63.
The market currently favors gold's safe-haven characteristics, while remaining cautious toward silver's industrial demand and cyclical outlook. Silver may therefore continue to underperform gold in the short term.
Short-Term Outlook
Gold remains in a corrective phase, with $4,300 as the key support and $4,400 as the first resistance level that needs to be reclaimed. A hawkish Fed decision could push gold back toward $4,300, while a reduction in rate-hike expectations could allow a rebound toward $4,450-$4,500.
Silver's short-term structure remains weaker than gold's. The $64-$65 area is the key defensive zone, while a recovery above $66-$67 would be needed to improve sentiment.
The key catalysts next week include:
A softer-than-expected CPI report could reduce rate-hike expectations and support gold and silver. Conversely, if both CPI and PPI point to persistent inflation pressure, the dollar and yields could rise further, placing additional pressure on precious metals.
Overall, the medium-term structure for gold and silver remains resilient, but the short-term market has entered a highly volatile phase dominated by inflation data and Federal Reserve policy. Next week’s decision and policy language could determine the next major direction for precious metals.
At Upway Global, we continue to help clients navigate changing precious-metals markets with competitive pricing and professional market insights.
This market commentary is for general information only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial product.
Risk Disclosure
This report is based on publicly available information and mainstream media coverage. Policies and data may change upon release of official documents or judicial rulings. Precious metal prices are affected by USD dynamics, interest rates, geopolitics, and central bank demand, among other factors, and are subject to significant volatility. Any investment views herein are for reference only and do not constitute investment or trading advice for any individual. Please assess decisions prudently considering your own risk tolerance and financial conditions.
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