2026-10-02 10:35:15
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Precious metals experienced another volatile week, with gold and silver pressured by a stronger U.S. dollar, sharply higher Treasury yields and resilient U.S. economic data. Gold briefly fell toward the $4,110-$4,150 area, while silver moved toward $60 before recovering modestly.
Some physical and dip-buying demand returned near the lows, but both metals remained in a corrective and fragile consolidation phase. The market is now waiting for the U.S. September non-farm payrolls report to assess whether the Federal Reserve may continue tightening or shift toward a more cautious policy stance as growth slows.
Macro: Resilient Data Pushes Yields Higher
U.S. economic data remained relatively strong this week, reducing concerns about an immediate growth slowdown and increasing expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep policy restrictive.
U.S. private payrolls increased by 90,000 in September, above expectations of approximately 73,000 and significantly higher than August's 36,000 gain. Second-quarter GDP growth was revised higher to an annualized 2.2%, while real consumer spending rose 3.8%, indicating that economic activity remains resilient.
Stronger data supported the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields. The 10-year Treasury yield moved toward approximately 5.25%, close to a multi-year high, while real yields also increased. This raised the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as gold and silver.
Oil prices also remained elevated, adding to concerns about inflation and future interest-rate policy. The market's focus shifted from "slowing growth supporting safe havens" to "resilient growth and higher yields pressuring precious metals."
The U.S. September employment report is due on Friday, October 2. Consensus expectations point to approximately 55,000-58,000 new jobs, with the unemployment rate holding near 4.1%. A stronger-than-expected report could push yields higher and pressure metals, while a weak report could revive expectations for a pause in further tightening and support a rebound.
Gold: Tests $4,100-$4,150 as Dip Buyers Return
Gold remained under pressure from rising yields and a stronger dollar, falling toward the $4,110-$4,150 area. On September 29, gold rebounded from approximately a seven-week low and traded near $4,190, suggesting that some physical and dip-buying interest emerged near the lows.
Gold needs to reclaim $4,200 before attempting a recovery toward $4,250-$4,300. If payrolls are stronger than expected and yields rise further, gold could retest $4,100. A sustained break below that area could expose the market to $4,000-$4,050.
Despite the recent correction, gold continues to receive support from official-sector demand, geopolitical uncertainty and strategic buying near lower levels. Future stabilization will depend largely on whether yields peak and whether the U.S. labor market begins to weaken more clearly.
Silver: Falls Toward $60 and Remains More Volatile
Silver continued to under-perform gold this week. As yields and the dollar moved sharply higher, silver fell toward $60 before recovering modestly.
Spot silver was around $60.39 on September 30, down approximately 1.83% on the session. On September 29, silver had rebounded toward $62.20, but the market remained under significant corrective pressure.
If silver can reclaim $62, prices may recover toward $64-$65. A sustained move below $60 would increase the risk of a decline toward $58-$59.
The gold-silver ratio has widened, showing that investors currently prefer gold's defensive characteristics while remaining cautious toward silver's industrial and cyclical exposure.
Short-Term Outlook
Gold and silver experienced a meaningful correction as Treasury yields moved sharply higher. The next short-term direction will be determined mainly by U.S. labor-market data and Federal Reserve expectations.
Gold's first support zone is around $4,100-$4,150. A recovery above $4,200 and then $4,250 would improve the technical outlook. A weak payrolls report could allow gold to recover toward $4,250-$4,300, while a strong report could send prices back toward $4,100 or even $4,000.
Silver's key support is around $60. Holding this level and reclaiming $62 would improve short-term sentiment. A sustained break below $60 could open the way toward $58-$59.
The main catalysts for next week include:
If payrolls are significantly weaker than expected, markets may reduce expectations for further tightening. A weaker dollar and lower yields would likely support gold and silver. Conversely, another resilient employment report could keep yields elevated and extend the corrective phase in precious metals.
Overall, gold is testing an important support zone after a sharp pullback, with $4,100-$4,150 as the key defensive area. Silver faces greater downside pressure, and whether it can hold $60 will be critical for its next short-term move.
At Upway Global, we continue to help clients navigate changing precious-metals markets with competitive pricing and professional market insights.
This market commentary is for general information only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial product.
Risk Disclosure
This report is based on publicly available information and mainstream media coverage. Policies and data may change upon release of official documents or judicial rulings. Precious metal prices are affected by USD dynamics, interest rates, geopolitics, and central bank demand, among other factors, and are subject to significant volatility. Any investment views herein are for reference only and do not constitute investment or trading advice for any individual. Please assess decisions prudently considering your own risk tolerance and financial conditions.
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