2026-11-06 11:27:22
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Precious metals experienced significant volatility this week before staging a strong rebound. Following the U.S. midterm elections, in which Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress, concerns over fiscal and policy uncertainty eased, pushing the dollar and Treasury yields lower and driving gold and silver sharply higher from last week's lows.
Gold recovered from around $3,900 to above $4,100, briefly reaching $4,148, while silver rebounded from below $50 to the $52-$53 area. The gold-silver ratio eased from around 79 to approximately 78, reflecting improved risk appetite in the market.
Macro: Post-Election Dollar Weakness and Lower Yields
The market's focus this week was on the U.S. midterm election results and Federal Reserve policy expectations. After Democrats won control of both chambers of Congress, concerns over fiscal and policy uncertainty eased, pushing the dollar index down from recent highs to around 101.38, while the 10-year Treasury yield retreated from near 5.0% to approximately 4.82%-4.87%.
At the same time, crude oil prices fell sharply, with Brent dropping to a two-month low, easing concerns about inflation and future interest-rate policy. This provided room for gold and silver to rebound.
However, market expectations for a 25-basis-point rate hike at the Federal Reserve's December 9 meeting remain elevated, with interest-rate futures pricing a probability of approximately 79%-82%. This factor continues to limit the upside for precious metals.
The U.S. October nonfarm payrolls report is due on Friday, November 6. Market consensus expects approximately 100,000 new jobs, with the unemployment rate holding near 4.2%. A stronger-than-expected report could push December hike expectations higher and pressure metals, while a weaker report could further reduce hike expectations and support a rebound.
Gold: Rebounds from $3,900 to Above $4,100
Gold staged a strong rebound this week after falling to around $3,900 last week. Post-election dollar weakness, falling yields and lower oil prices pushed prices sharply higher, with gold breaking above $4,100 later in the week.
As of November 5, spot gold was trading around $4,122 per ounce, up more than $200 from the week's low, with a single-day gain of 3.4% at one point, the largest since August.
Gold's next upside target is the $4,187-$4,227 resistance zone. A sustained break above this area could open the way toward $4,300. If payrolls are stronger than expected or December hike expectations rise, gold could retreat to the $4,050-$4,085 area. A sustained break below $4,000 would increase the risk of a move toward $3,950.
The recent rebound suggests that while expectations for further tightening remain elevated, they have not yet fully dominated market sentiment. Future performance will depend on real yields, the dollar and the nonfarm payrolls report.
Silver: Rebounds from Below $50 to $52-$53
Silver also staged a strong rebound this week. Post-election dollar weakness and falling yields pushed prices from below $50 to the $52-$53 area.
As of November 5, spot silver was trading around $52.85 per ounce, up approximately $3 from the week's low.
If silver can reclaim $53, prices may recover toward $54-$55. A sustained break below $50 would increase the risk of a decline toward $48-$49.
The gold-silver ratio remains elevated, showing that investors currently prefer gold's safe-haven characteristics while remaining cautious about silver's industrial-demand and cyclical outlook.
Short-Term Outlook
Gold and silver staged a strong rebound after the midterm elections, but December hike expectations remain elevated, limiting the upside for precious metals.
Gold's first resistance zone is the $4,187-$4,227 area. A sustained break above this level could open the way toward $4,300. If payrolls are stronger than expected or December hike expectations rise, gold could retreat to the $4,050-$4,085 area. A sustained break below $4,000 would increase the risk of a move toward $3,950.
Silver's key resistance is around $53-$54. A break above this level could open the way toward $54-$55. A sustained move below $50 would increase the risk of a decline toward $48-$49.
The main catalysts for next week include:
If payrolls are weaker than expected, markets may reduce December hike expectations, supporting further gains in gold and silver. Conversely, a stronger print could lift the dollar and yields, placing pressure on precious metals at higher levels.
Overall, gold remains in a rebound phase from recent lows, with $4,000 as the key support level. Silver's rebound elasticity is strong, but it needs to reclaim the $50-$53 area to improve its near-term structure.
At Upway Global, we continue to help clients navigate changing precious-metals markets with competitive pricing and professional market insights.
This market commentary is for general information only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any financial product.
Risk Disclosure
This report is based on publicly available information and mainstream media coverage. Policies and data may change upon release of official documents or judicial rulings. Precious metal prices are affected by USD dynamics, interest rates, geopolitics, and central bank demand, among other factors, and are subject to significant volatility. Any investment views herein are for reference only and do not constitute investment or trading advice for any individual. Please assess decisions prudently considering your own risk tolerance and financial conditions.
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